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E.P.L 29.08.15-Total Goals Report
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Hi there. Welcome to Prebetting Reports
In this blog post we take a look at total goals market for the English Premier League matches on 29/8/2015.
Before you scroll a little bit down to the table let’s have a word about what this is all about.
In the past years I have been collecting odds (Home win, draw, away win) data for some of the major European Soccer Leagues, such as the English Premier League which is my favorite.
After having collected data I cluster them into classes, an idea I have read on http://www.soccerwidow.com/. A class is calculated as home odds/away odds. This way I am able to study trends on similar events. Matches belonging to the same odds class should have similar characteristics.
I split the total matches in each class into fives and calculate the moving average. The average being showed in the table is the average of the moving averages.
We can see the average of moving averages, the standard deviation, the CV, which shows us how close to the average the values move. We then calculate the range in which the value is moving. It is like an upper and lower limit based on the standard deviation.
Then we calculate the value of the last 4 events in order to forecast the value of the next match in a manner that fits the average, the lower and upper limits
The value on the next match will be added to the value of the previous 4 matches, to form a new five of results. We have already calculated the average of five and therefore we can use it as a starting point to our predictions.
It’s time to trigger some predictions.
I start with Manchester City – Watford.
The average total goals of the moving average for each 5 matches is 2,97 goals per game. The CV of this match is the lowest in the table and it means that the values move pretty close to the average which is something very important
Now have a look at the value in the “FOR AVRG” column. It is 3,83. What does this mean? It means that in the next match we need 3,83 goals in order the new born moving average of 5 games to be around the general average of 2,97.
Let’s make it practical. We have a class in which the average of the moving average of each last 5 games is 2,97 goals in total. The last 4 games have a total of 11 goals. So how many (X) goals do we need for the next match in order the new last five games to be close to the general average? The answer is (11+X)/5=2,97 => X=3,83.
I use this value as an indicator that we may see some goals in this match. So we can back the Over 2,5 goals in this occasion.
Next match Bournemouth – Leicester. Again the same way we can back the Over 2,5 goals market .
On the Stoke City - West Brom we could stick on to 2-3 goals.
On the Chelsea - Crystal Palace we may pick the Under 2,5 or the Under 3 to have a safety net in case 3 goals come, or again cause Chelsea shall hit form at some point again 2-3 goals.
On Liverpool - West Ham also low scores so for safety again Under 3 or 2,75 goals.
On Aston Villa – Sunderland we could start off Over 2,5 and why not chase something juicy on Over 3,5 goals.
Last on Tottenham – Everton we could back the 2-3 goals or the Over 2,5.
So the point I want to make is that collecting and studying some basic stats can be a very strong starting point for our stakes as we may identify some strong trends etc and therefore locate value in markets otherwise we would not.
Of course this is just the pure mathematical kind of startup. Someone can add qualitative values to get to the final decision.
I hope you liked the whole thinking and hope the above table will add even a little missing piece from your betting puzzle on the goals market.
Thank you for reading and why not leave a comment.
In this blog post we take a look at total goals market for the English Premier League matches on 29/8/2015.
Before you scroll a little bit down to the table let’s have a word about what this is all about.
In the past years I have been collecting odds (Home win, draw, away win) data for some of the major European Soccer Leagues, such as the English Premier League which is my favorite.
After having collected data I cluster them into classes, an idea I have read on http://www.soccerwidow.com/. A class is calculated as home odds/away odds. This way I am able to study trends on similar events. Matches belonging to the same odds class should have similar characteristics.
We can see the average of moving averages, the standard deviation, the CV, which shows us how close to the average the values move. We then calculate the range in which the value is moving. It is like an upper and lower limit based on the standard deviation.
Then we calculate the value of the last 4 events in order to forecast the value of the next match in a manner that fits the average, the lower and upper limits
The value on the next match will be added to the value of the previous 4 matches, to form a new five of results. We have already calculated the average of five and therefore we can use it as a starting point to our predictions.
It’s time to trigger some predictions.
I start with Manchester City – Watford.
The average total goals of the moving average for each 5 matches is 2,97 goals per game. The CV of this match is the lowest in the table and it means that the values move pretty close to the average which is something very important
Now have a look at the value in the “FOR AVRG” column. It is 3,83. What does this mean? It means that in the next match we need 3,83 goals in order the new born moving average of 5 games to be around the general average of 2,97.
Let’s make it practical. We have a class in which the average of the moving average of each last 5 games is 2,97 goals in total. The last 4 games have a total of 11 goals. So how many (X) goals do we need for the next match in order the new last five games to be close to the general average? The answer is (11+X)/5=2,97 => X=3,83.
I use this value as an indicator that we may see some goals in this match. So we can back the Over 2,5 goals in this occasion.
Next match Bournemouth – Leicester. Again the same way we can back the Over 2,5 goals market .
On the Stoke City - West Brom we could stick on to 2-3 goals.
On the Chelsea - Crystal Palace we may pick the Under 2,5 or the Under 3 to have a safety net in case 3 goals come, or again cause Chelsea shall hit form at some point again 2-3 goals.
On Liverpool - West Ham also low scores so for safety again Under 3 or 2,75 goals.
On Aston Villa – Sunderland we could start off Over 2,5 and why not chase something juicy on Over 3,5 goals.
Last on Tottenham – Everton we could back the 2-3 goals or the Over 2,5.
So the point I want to make is that collecting and studying some basic stats can be a very strong starting point for our stakes as we may identify some strong trends etc and therefore locate value in markets otherwise we would not.
Of course this is just the pure mathematical kind of startup. Someone can add qualitative values to get to the final decision.
I hope you liked the whole thinking and hope the above table will add even a little missing piece from your betting puzzle on the goals market.
Thank you for reading and why not leave a comment.
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