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LaLiga » Sevilla - Real Sociedad 29.09.2019
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Tonight we will try on LaLiga » Sevilla - Real Sociedad
The match belongs to class 0.43 for La Liga. The reason why I bother is that on Full Time market this class has produced 6-4-2 (H-D-A).
So the first notice is that it is somehow complicated. There is not a strong trend to a specific outcome. Everything is possible but of course every outcome has its place in hierarchy.
In Goal lines concerning 2,5 goals the class has produced 6 Over & Under. It’s a tie till now and this will definitely change tonight.
The hosts average 1,75 goals for and 0,92 against.
This time we will introduce Poisson in our staking plan. We will use it to get the total probabilities of each one of the outcomes adding up correct scores probabilities.
So using the averages of 1,75 & 0,92 POISSON calculates:
Result |
|||
1 |
2 |
X |
Grand Total |
56% |
20% |
23% |
100,00% |
1,78 |
4,93 |
4,26 |
Fair Odds |
O/U 2.5 |
||
Over 2.5 |
Under 2.5 |
Grand Total |
50,64% |
49,36% |
100,00% |
1,97 |
2,03 |
Fair Odds |
Correct scores with probability >=4%
Home Goals |
Away Goals |
Result |
O/U 2.5 |
O/U 3.5 |
GG/NG |
Poisson % |
1 |
0 |
1 |
U |
U |
NG |
11,76% |
1 |
1 |
X |
U |
U |
GG |
11,17% |
2 |
0 |
1 |
U |
U |
NG |
10,29% |
2 |
1 |
1 |
O |
U |
GG |
9,78% |
0 |
0 |
X |
U |
U |
NG |
6,72% |
0 |
1 |
2 |
U |
U |
NG |
6,38% |
3 |
0 |
1 |
O |
U |
NG |
6,00% |
3 |
1 |
1 |
O |
O |
GG |
5,70% |
1 |
2 |
2 |
O |
U |
GG |
5,31% |
2 |
2 |
X |
O |
O |
GG |
4,64% |
So based on above table we get 5 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins
It’s very interesting that this projection based on Poisson is almost identical with the actual results for this odds’ class (for both full time & over/under 2,5 goal line)
My next step is to find if we can get any profit margin using these scores. For this I need the services of Stake Calculator.
Covering all above 10 correct scores on Bet 365 costs 0,956 units for a profit margin of 4.55% when & if one of them comes true.
I will try to stretch this margin as much as possible.
I will risk again leaving 0-0 & 0-1 out.
Another important decision would be to go for both teams to score or not.
Real Sociedad has scored at 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two sides.
If we go with both teams to score the picks go down to the half and so does the cost to cover those (0,498 units).
I will add some cost though going for market Home to win with 2 goals margin so I cover also the 2-0 correct score that I cut off earlier.
2-0 and 3-1 as correct scores cost 0,167 units but Winning Margin Home +2 costs 0,181.
So final Stake Calculator looks like this:
You can go for equal profit margin of 63% or you could try to go for specific picks and in my example I split profit margin at 1-2, 2-2 and Home +2.
You can try your own.
Good luck to everyone!!!
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