Ok first things first

Last 3 meetings between them were priced with home side to be considered as the clear favorites.

The odds classes have been 0.26, 0.27 and 0.35 and guess what…

One (1) home win, no draw and two (2) away wins, all 3 under 2.5 goals.

For tonight’s game odds class is around 1.05 which means home odds are almost the same with away odds. So there is no clear favorite for the public.

Class 1.05 has no records at all in my dataset, so this means this is the first time it appears.

So I opened up the range a little bit and went for 1.04-1.06

I got 57 records!!! That’s a huge sample for our way of doing things.

17-18-22 for 1-X-2 respectively and 31-26 Over-Under 2.5

Now 72% of the games have been either draws or wins with 1 goal margin

Goals averages are 1.19 for home sides and 1.37 for away. Pretty close.

In the last 5 records home teams averaged 1.60 goals and away 1.20.

Last five averages of fives have been 1.44 and 1.00 for home and away respectively.

There is a goal expectancy for the home side. The indicator shows 1.2 goals to be expected if the new average for the last 5 matches should equal the 1.44 (which is the average of the last 5 averages of fives). The recent results show an uptrend for the home sides but without being extreme. The general average of averages of fives is 1.18 right now. The last 5 averages is higher than this 1.18 (at 1.44).

On the other side the goal expectancy for the away teams is zero (0) goals. The general average of each 5 games average is 1.37, while the last 5 averages averaged just 1.00 telling us about a slight down trend. Again this downtrend is not extreme.

This could well be a match where both teams score and also a close one. If we would like and we choose to stick to this approach we should utilize the basic stats we talked about the best way possible

So we could go with draws of 1-1, 2-2.

Then we could go for 1 goal margin victories plus a 2 goal margin victory for the home side

Based on odds as we could bet on at around 21:15 the selections showed in the print screen cost 0.8 units for 1 unit returned, which equals to 25% of net profit based on our cost (0.2 units profit from 0.8 units cost).

 

Hello to all Premier League fans out there.

Todays’ big match has to be Liverpool against Tottenham. Hosts need 3 points to stay 6 points clear from Manchester City.

So let's get to work.

Last 4 meetings between these 2 have produced 2 home wins and 2 draws.

On 3 of them, both teams have scored and 2 times we had over 2,5 goals in total.

Liverpool averaged 1,75 and Tottenham 1,00 goals on those past 4 meetings.

About odds classes now, odds have been shortening for Liverpool.

From 0,71 on 02/04/2016 (1-1 final score) to 0,26 31/03/2019 (2-1 final score).

For today’s class last night I had a class of 0,26 which have been a class with heavey trend on home win with 10 out of 12 appearances.

But as of 27/10/2019 12:31 (GMT+2), the class has changed to 0,22

Class 0,22 has had 20 appearances from 26/09/2015 till now and here are the stats:

Full-time results:10-6-4 (H-D-A)

2,5 goals line: 10-10 (Over-Under)

Both teams to score: 12/20

In addition, home teams average 2,1 and away teams 0,9 goals for.

If we implement these averages in POISSON then we get following probabilities:

1	2	X	Grand Total
65,02%	15,09%	19,89%	100,00%
1,54	6,63	5,03	Fair odds

 

O/U 2.5
O	U	Grand Total
57,68%	42,32%	100,00%
1,73	2,36	Fair odds

 

GG/NG
NG	GG	Grand Total
47,92%	52,08%	100,00%
2,09	1,92	Fair odds

 

Liverpool has featured on 3 of these 20 cases winning 2, losing 1 all 3 games over 2,5 goals in total.

Following the top correct scores based on POISSON with a total coverage of 69.23% of all possible scores analyzed.

Home	Away	Result	O/U 2.5	O/U 3.5	GG/NG	Poisson %
2	0	1	U	U	NG	10,98%
1	0	1	U	U	NG	10,46%
2	1	1	O	U	GG	9,88%
1	1	X	U	U	GG	9,41%
3	0	1	O	U	NG	7,68%
3	1	1	O	O	GG	6,92%
0	0	X	U	U	NG	4,98%
0	1	2	U	U	NG	4,48%
2	2	X	O	O	GG	4,45%

 

The 20 matches on this class have produced 13 different correct scores so we see a big variation. Most popular (appearances in brackets) have been:

1-1 (5)

0-1, 2-0, 3-1 (2)

So enough concerning theory let’s get to real business and by real business, I mean staking plan.

I will use all the above data and will try to find maximum returns on the maximum cover of my units.

I shall begin with Tottenham winning margin by 1 goal. It will be a real upset if visitors get away with a 2 goals margin victory. I don’t claim it’s not possible in real life, we just have to risk to have some profit margin.

Now for the draw, we have to leave 0-0 outside.

So 1-1, 2-2 are on board.

The 1 goal margin should be used for Liverpool as well, plus 2 goals margin and then we see if we can hunt something like 3-0 on the other stretching end.

Picks and odds following:

So our Staking Calculator looks like this:

So everybody lets have some fun and enjoy the game. Good luck to those betting on it too.

See you